Category: 2009

Consumption of tropical hardwood plywood in Europe is now winding down for the Christmas break which is likely to be extended this year. However there has been some forward buying in recent weeks as importers have been filling gaps in preparation for the New Year. Although very few people are expecting a dramatic turnaround in consumption during the first half of 2010, there is mounting concern that temporary supply problems may arise due to short-falls in grounded-stocks.

The European market for tropical hardwood sawn lumber has changed little over recent weeks, now maintaining a fine and potentially unstable balance between generally low grounded stock levels, very low forward supplies and much reduced consumption. CIF prices are generally firming on the back of rising freight rates and shippers efforts to raise FOB prices.

The Financial Times (FT) reports that “the worst recession to hit continental Europe since the 1930s ended formally in the three months to September, but with less than a bang than expected.” Drawing on Eurostat data, the FT notes that GDP in the 16-country eurozone grew 0.4% in the third quarter compared with the previous 3 months. That was the first positive growth reported since early 2008. Germany returned to its role as Europe’s economic powerhouse, reporting a 0.7% expansion, boosted by investment spending and exports. Italy also performed strongly with GDP rising 0.6% in the third quarter. But the overall euro-zone rebound was marred by a much weaker than expected performance by France, which reported a GDP rise of 0.3% – the same as the previous quarter. Eurozone prospects also remain blighted by Spain, hit badly by its property market collapse.

Ed Pepke of the UNECE Timber Committee, delivering the opening address at the American Hardwood Export Council (AHEC) biannual European Convention in Athens on 22 October, described the current downturn as “the worst since the second world war”. Pepke went on to suggest that the world only avoided “a second great depression” as a result of the unprecedented concerted global policy response – including swift measures to stabilise the banking sector in several countries and various government stimulus measures which have pumped huge sums of money into the global economy. Pepke noted that while most countries across the globe will record negative GDP growth this year, economists believe the numbers will turn positive next year. Nevertheless Pepke suggested that “this recovery will be very slow.”

Trade contacts report continuing low levels of tropical hardwood forward buying in the EU at the end of the third quarter of 2009. Earlier predictions of significant price rises in the face of widespread shortages after a long period of slow buying have yet to be realised. CIF Europe price trends for tropical hardwood logs and sawn lumber seem now to be trending upwards, but at present this seems more due to increases in freight rate and exchange rate fluctuations than to any sharp shift in the balance of supply and demand. There is some evidence of gaps opening up in stocks of certain special assortments, but generally there still seems to be enough material on the ground in Europe to satisfy current low levels of consumption. There continues to be a lot of cross-trading between European companies to fill gaps in stocks as they arise, with little interest in speculative forward purchases. This applies both to products destined for the joinery sector and for the garden decking sector. The 2009 season for decking products in Europe is now over and considerable uncertainty over prospects for the 2010 season has led to considerable reluctance on the part of importers to build stocks.

The latest European import data suggests that the dramatic fall in EU tropical hardwood imports which began at the start of 2008, continued into the second quarter of 2009. Between January and June this year, European imports of tropical hardwood logs, sawn lumber, veneer and plywood were down 41%, 45%, 39% and 46% respectively compared to the same period in 2008. European import volumes of these commodities in 2009 are a small fraction of those prevailing only two years earlier in 2007. While it is easy to explain falling import volumes as a cyclical response to the global economic downturn, such has been the depth of the decline that serious issues are raised about the extent to which it might drive long-term structural changes in the European wood industry that may be generally detrimental to future prospects for tropical hardwood.

While the European summer holiday season has now come to end, hardwood importers across the EU remain extremely cautious of forward buying. So far expectations that reduced landed stocks in Europe after a very long period of limited buying would stimulate greater forward orders in the third quarter of the year, have yet to be realised.

Recent reports suggest little change in overall market sentiment in Europe. If anything demand for both tropical logs and lumber has slowed further with the onset of the summer vacation period, following on from the substantial fall in consumption across all major European markets beginning in the early part of 2008. Lack of credit insurance for many key customers of the importing sector remains a significant problem. Although many importers will still supply to customers lacking such insurance, the situation has considerably increased the financial risks associated with transactions and further deepened the trend towards smaller orders and just-in-time trading. Customer’s unwillingness to commit to purchase of larger volumes creates day-to-day uncertainty. This further discourages moves by importers to enter the forward market despite emerging signs of shortfalls in landed stocks in certain specifications and long lead times between ordering and arrival in the EU. For example, lead times of 4 to 5 months are now common for new orders from African sawmills. In current conditions of very low consumption and supply, prices for both logs and lumber on offer to European buyers are generally holding steady at relatively low levels.

After a long period of stagnant CIF NW Europe prices for plywood products, European plywood agents believe that CIF prices may be on the verge of significant rises. Inflationary price pressures seem to be mounting. Shipping lines which have been shedding money over the last few months are laying up tonnage in an effort to drive up freight rates. And a long period of very low harvesting is contributing to a serious shortfall in log supplies which has increased raw material costs in major producing regions.

The latest trade data shows that the volume of hardwood primary and secondary wood products (logs, rough sawn lumber, veneer and plywood) imported into the EU-25 group of countries from developing nations was down 48% during the first quarter of 2009 compared to the same period the previous year. Imports during the 1st quarter of 2009 were also down 20% on the 4th quarter of 2008. The figures reinforce anecdotal reports of a collapse in forward buying of tropical hardwood products at the end of last year as importers responded to the credit crunch with radical steps to cut stocks.