Month: August 2008

A report in the Economist suggests that European economic prospects are deteriorating. It notes that “Europe is struggling to stay above water. Figures released on August 14th showed that the euro-area economy shrank at an annualised rate of 0.8% in the second quarter, the first such reverse since 2001. Nor are things likely to improve soon. A closely watched survey of purchasing managers in manufacturing and services slumped in July to its lowest level since 2001. Business confidence has turned down sharply in all of the three biggest economies in the euro area: Germany, France and Italy. Indeed, in the second quarter GDP fell in all three countries, paring their annual growth rates…Meanwhile Spain’s GDP has predictably stuttered as it endures a painful shock from its burst housing bubble…Ireland’s GDP which grew by 6% in 2007 is likely to shrink this year… Britain is on the brink of recession.”

An analysis of Eurostat import data during the period January to March 2008 for the EU-25 group of countries (all EU members excluding Romania and Bulgaria) carried out by Forest Industries Intelligence Limited tends to confirm the rather negative anecdotal reports of trading conditions this year (see data in attached Excel file). While EU-25 import volumes of tropical hardwood logs and veneers held up reasonably well during the review period (down 2% and up 8% respectively), imports of tropical hardwood sawn and plywood were significantly down on the previous year (down 11% and 6% respectively).